Scientific Election Predictions

I saw that Mark Steyn was having a contest on his website to predict the outcome of the election. So I fired up the magic 8-ball and started shaking. After that I double-checked my answers against a bag of fortune cookies.

Using my methods, I should be at least as reliable as the major polling agencies.

1. Bush 51.8 Kerry 47.1

2.Bush 330 Kerry 208

3. Last state to decide: Pennsylvania

4. Blue to red: Wisconsin
Red to blue: New Hampshire

5. Maine split: b) Three for Kerry, one for Bush

6.a) George W Bush will receive in Texas: 64.3
b) Dick Cheney will receive in Wyoming: 70.7
c) John Kerry will receive in Massachusetts: 59.8
d) John Edwards will receive in North Carolina: 38.3

7. Senate: 54 R, 44 D, 1 Ind (VT-Looney) and 1 in Louisiana not decided until December. (I predict it will go R)
House: 231 R, 203 D, 1 Ind (VT-Looney)

8. Dem incumbent senator looser: Daschle
Rep incumbent senator looser: none

9. Daschle 47.5, Thune 52.0.

10.Bush: AL(9) AK(3) AR(6) AZ(10) CO(9) GA(15) FL(27) HI(4) IA(7) ID(4) IN(11) KS(6) KY(8) LA(9) ME(1) MI(17) MN(10) MO(11) MS(6) MT(3) NC(15) NE(5) ND(3) NV(5) OH(20) OK(7) OR(7) SC(8) SD(3) TN(11) TX(34) UT(5) VA(13) WI(10) WV(5) WY(3)

Kerry: CA(55) CT(7) DC(3) DE(3) IL(21) MD(10) ME(3) MA(12) NH(4) NJ(15) NM(5) NY(31) PA(21) RI(4) VT(3) WA(11)

More on this later.

UPDATE: (2-Nov-04, 11:53AM) The smudge on the bottom of my morning coffee mug seems to support my predictions. To clarify, I would give W a larger national number and also call Pennsylvania and New Mexico for him except that I believe that both the Quaker State and the kooky banana republic on my eastern border will be decided by fraud.